On Wednesday, we reported the findings of an initial look at the accuracy of thousands of election forecasts issued by prediction markets, quantitative forecasters, and expert handicappers ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. This analysis revealed that, in terms of probabilistic calibration of predictions for individual races, FiftyPlusOne was the most accurate forecaster in the House and second only to Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin in the Senate. And when looking at both vote share predictions and forecasts of overall chamber control, FiftyPlusOne was the most accurate forecaster in both the House and Senate.
Today, The New York Times published the results of its own investigation that finds FiftyPlusOne had the most accurate election forecasting model over the whole 2026 election cycle, beating both prediction markets and other forecasters at almost all time horizons.
Prediction markets “beat” FiftyPlusOne at the race level in the final days, but not at predicting control of the House and Senate, and not when it matters most: early in the fall campaign period, when readers are forming their expectations of what might happen in November, and campaigns and investors are making critical decisions about how to allocate resources across races.
The Times sent FiftyPlusOne this table summarizing lifetime Brier scores for several prolific forecasters:
And additionally produced this summary chart of model accuracy from 90 days before the election to Election Day:
But FiftyPlusOne may have done even better than The Times’ analysis shows. That’s because their number-crunching looks only at predictions for individual races. But FiftyPlusOne was far better calibrated than any other forecaster in anticipating that Democrats would control the House after Nov. 3, and also gave Democrats a better chance of winning the Senate than either Polymarket or Kalshi on every day since August 1st.
Paid subscribers to 50+1 get access to premium analysis, plus sortable tables and complete data access on our polling website. If you want to follow the 2026 cycle with the best data at your fingertips, become a paid subscriber.
Political intelligence, however you want it
FiftyPlusOne is a unique business, in a few ways. We are mission-driven in that we have a commitment to the democratic ideal that what people think matters and should be taken into account by political leaders, the press, and the public. Our website says “50+1 is a website devoted to political polling and elections.” This has a double meaning: we focus on these things in terms of editorial coverage, but we also believe in them and are devoted to their success.
Our pro-democracy stance separates 50+1 from the crowd of analysts and election forecasts that make predictions for prediction’s sake. We also make it a priority to focus not just on the horserace polls, but the broader polling landscape, regularly producing in-depth coverage of how Americans understand the issues facing them and what policies they favor to address those issues. This focus on voters’ opinions on issues is a crucial part of polling, and the only way politicians can truly understand the needs and wants of their constituencies.
But FiftyPlusOne does not make most of its money selling flowery prose about the value of polls and democracy. We also provide customers from various industries, including finance and political campaigns, direct access to our polling averages and election forecasts via API download. This monetization is what makes our public-interest journalism and polling aggregation possible for the masses.
If you have a business need for polling or election forecasting data, now is a perfect time to contact us and get set up for the next election cycle (the 2028 primaries start next week, by the way). Our website also includes full data tables and other goodies for many types of political polls exclusively for paying subscribers to this Substack. And if you’re just here for the love of the game, our posts on Substack will remain free for the foreseeable future.
Thank you to our many readers and customers who fund our work and give it meaning. We look forward to continuing to grow this business for many cycles to come!
—The FiftyPlusOne team
Wonderful. Your predictions were informative and reassuring for me. I hope you go from strength to strength and will maintain my subscription indefinitely. Perhaps I shouldn't ask, but how did RealClearPolitics perform according to NYT?