As much as I appreciate the meticulous way of aggregating your polls, historically the wonkier poll aggregators like Nate Silver have shown more Dem bias, than the aggregators who dont fiddle with the polls like RCP, so I will go with RCP, regardless of their failings their results are more accurate. Even RCP has in total a slight Dem bias ( defined as actual results being worse for the Dems than the polling) but less so than the others. On the contrary, midterms show less Dem bias than presidential years. RCP has the congressional generic today at D + 6.2 certainly enough to deliver the house. I dont think most of the pollsters would think the Senate is even, and the betting markets have tightened but today Polymarket gives the Rs a 55% chance of holding the Senate. I have my own methodology which is now showing the chance of the Ds flipping the Senate at 40% but I would say that is more speculative than the HOR. We had some recent good polls for Ossof and bad ones for Platner, and MI is just guesswork until we see who wins the Dem primary ( imo El-Sayed will be the weaker).
Excellent explanation of your very careful predictive modeling. Thank you as your work is substantially more precise than the usual NYT polling partners.
Interesting that SC ranked slightly better for Dems than FL. I'd thought FL was a sleeper. Super-sleepers in a tsunami would be KS and MS which I'm guessing would be in the single digits.
As much as I appreciate the meticulous way of aggregating your polls, historically the wonkier poll aggregators like Nate Silver have shown more Dem bias, than the aggregators who dont fiddle with the polls like RCP, so I will go with RCP, regardless of their failings their results are more accurate. Even RCP has in total a slight Dem bias ( defined as actual results being worse for the Dems than the polling) but less so than the others. On the contrary, midterms show less Dem bias than presidential years. RCP has the congressional generic today at D + 6.2 certainly enough to deliver the house. I dont think most of the pollsters would think the Senate is even, and the betting markets have tightened but today Polymarket gives the Rs a 55% chance of holding the Senate. I have my own methodology which is now showing the chance of the Ds flipping the Senate at 40% but I would say that is more speculative than the HOR. We had some recent good polls for Ossof and bad ones for Platner, and MI is just guesswork until we see who wins the Dem primary ( imo El-Sayed will be the weaker).
Excellent explanation of your very careful predictive modeling. Thank you as your work is substantially more precise than the usual NYT polling partners.
Is that all races +/-10pts?
Interesting that SC ranked slightly better for Dems than FL. I'd thought FL was a sleeper. Super-sleepers in a tsunami would be KS and MS which I'm guessing would be in the single digits.
*I meant senate races