You didn't mention how Peter Crosby's polls compare with independent polls (if there are any) and expectations based on prior elections.
The accuracy or inaccuracy of an internal poll may depend on the candidate's motives for doing it. With his experience in polling Peter Crosby may have been trying to be as accurate as possible so that he can use his polls to direct and fashion advertising, to determine where best to hold in-person events, and to determine where to concentrate on-the-ground efforts.
Although it seems very reasonable to adjust polls for reliability, I have for a while seen eg how Nate Silver uses a very complicated pollster rating system, that,. as compared to say RCP, tends to push his polls to a stronger Dem bias than RCP which has a milder one.
It is not that the methodology is not reasonable, but whatever phenomenon has pushed the polls to have anywhere from mild to moderate Dem bias since at least 2016 whether shy Trump effect or Republican non responders, rating and adjusting the pollsters only seems to makes it worse and why eg RCP has been more accurate than Silver and also Sabato who doesn't aggregate but somehow comes out with a higher over estimation of Dem prospects.
Typically Silver's aggregations were more favorable to the Dems than RCP and yet in the actual elections even RCP had a slight Dem bias. For example just looking at the congressional generic comparing the final polls with the actual national congressional vote, RCP since 2002, has overestimated the Dems in 9 of 12 elections with an average bias of 1.4%. Silver was off by 2.5%. The phenomenon holds for Presidential and Senate.
You need to take all such polls out. Plus it would be good if you allowed users to see averages where all internal polls are omitted since they seem to always be biased. It would also be nice if one could toggle to filter on various aspects. For example one could toggle to omit R leaning pollsters. You could toggle to omit polls with an N< 500. You should prominently display the margin of error for all polls and avoid statements like saying X leads Y by one point when the MOE shows us it is tied. An article explaining Margin of Error to your readers would be great. Thanks.
You didn't mention how Peter Crosby's polls compare with independent polls (if there are any) and expectations based on prior elections.
The accuracy or inaccuracy of an internal poll may depend on the candidate's motives for doing it. With his experience in polling Peter Crosby may have been trying to be as accurate as possible so that he can use his polls to direct and fashion advertising, to determine where best to hold in-person events, and to determine where to concentrate on-the-ground efforts.
Although it seems very reasonable to adjust polls for reliability, I have for a while seen eg how Nate Silver uses a very complicated pollster rating system, that,. as compared to say RCP, tends to push his polls to a stronger Dem bias than RCP which has a milder one.
It is not that the methodology is not reasonable, but whatever phenomenon has pushed the polls to have anywhere from mild to moderate Dem bias since at least 2016 whether shy Trump effect or Republican non responders, rating and adjusting the pollsters only seems to makes it worse and why eg RCP has been more accurate than Silver and also Sabato who doesn't aggregate but somehow comes out with a higher over estimation of Dem prospects.
Typically Silver's aggregations were more favorable to the Dems than RCP and yet in the actual elections even RCP had a slight Dem bias. For example just looking at the congressional generic comparing the final polls with the actual national congressional vote, RCP since 2002, has overestimated the Dems in 9 of 12 elections with an average bias of 1.4%. Silver was off by 2.5%. The phenomenon holds for Presidential and Senate.
You need to take all such polls out. Plus it would be good if you allowed users to see averages where all internal polls are omitted since they seem to always be biased. It would also be nice if one could toggle to filter on various aspects. For example one could toggle to omit R leaning pollsters. You could toggle to omit polls with an N< 500. You should prominently display the margin of error for all polls and avoid statements like saying X leads Y by one point when the MOE shows us it is tied. An article explaining Margin of Error to your readers would be great. Thanks.